Understanding the Causes and Effects of Inflation
Inflation refers to the increasing price of a commodity over time. This economic situation ultimately affects the purchasing power of a specific currency as their ability to purchase a certain product or pay for a specific service weakens. Inflation is measured in percentage and they are constantly monitored by the government and businesses as this is an indicator on how well the country’s economy performs.
Historically, inflation has a direct relationship with the country’s gold deposits. Their inflation rate is determined if they have enough resources to buy for products and services. Simply put, if they have enough gold deposits, they can control inflation. This is a precarious type of relationship as increase in gold means increased in supply of funds which could trigger rapid increase of inflation rate. On the other hand, deflation could happen when gold supply drops.
The concept of modern inflation only started during the 19th century when economists identified three factors that could affect general price index:
- The value of the product in itself.
- Price of the making money (metals added to gold).
- Currency depreciation
Ultimately, inflation started to refer only to currency depreciation as this refers to the currency value based on the gold deposits and other valuable metal a country has. When the increased use of paper money started, the value of the paper notes has to be backed with valuable metal. A country can easily handle inflation if the printed money matches the stored valuable metal. This factor became increasingly important in the adaption of fiat currency (paper money).
Calculating Inflation
While there are many ways to calculate inflation, the most popular formula uses CPI or consumer price index. CPI is basically a measurement of prices of goods usually purchased by consumers. The rate is determined by the difference of prices overtime, usually annually.
With that said, the formula for the inflation rate is: [(March 2007 CPI – March 2006 CPI)/ March 2006 CPI] x 100%
The result of the said formula will give you the inflation rate for March 2007.
Causes of Inflation
There are two general theories about the causes of inflation: the quality and quantity cause. When referring to the cause of inflation on quantity, the backing valuable metals are considered. In modern era where international relation is also considered, the quantity theory on inflation also refers to the foreign exchange rate. The quality theory refers to the expectation of specific currency to purchase the same product at the same price in another time. The “expectation” is applied to sellers who ultimately become buyers of another product or services. Inflation is dictated when the seller expects to buy more from what they earned from the products sold or services offered.
Effects of Inflation
Inflation is often seen as a bad thing – for a good reason. As the basic meaning of inflation refers to the decreasing capability of a specific currency to buy certain goods and acquire services, consumers will feel their earnings would not be enough. Increased inflation means they have to earn more just to buy the same products they can buy a few years ago.
But this type of inflation where the negative effects are highlighted only happens when inflation becomes unpredictable. Consumers have to be concerned when they see a fluctuation of inflation rates as this would affect not only their purchasing power but also the economy. If the inflation rate is predictable, the government and businesses (foreign and local) can make the necessary adjustment to deal with the economy. Governments can set-up public works without any fear that they might not complete these projects because of inflation. Businesses will also increase their confidence because they can predict the inflation and make the necessary adjustments before it happens.
Inflation should be predictable and controllable at the same time. Businesses should be able to predict inflation but they also expect that the inflation will be kept minimal. Ideally, inflation should stay at the rate of 2.5% annually. This means a product that costs $1.00 now could cost $1.025 after one year. Businesses consider this as highly manageable and adjustments can be easily done to deal with rising cost of commodities.
While the government also expects predictable inflation, they can be a big factor in controlling inflation. The following are the ways government used to control inflation:
- Monetary Policy – through the central bank, the government can increase or decrease the interest rate as they see fit especially in relation to inflation. They could decrease the interest rate to encourage spending or increase the interest rate to slow down cash flow.
- Controlling Prices of Goods – the government can also have a direct hand in controlling the price of goods. But this is actually a short-term control scheme as permanent control for prices can also have a devastating effect in the economy.
- Wage Control – this is another short term method which is simply giving more allowance to the employed so that their purchasing power will increase. The government sets policies that will allow employees to earn more. This is practically adjusting the wages to the current inflation rate.
Inflation can be a good factor or bad factor for a country’s economy. Inflation could be a big problem when they rise exponentially without any means of predictability. On the other hand, they can be a good factor when they are controlled and kept within 2% - 3%. When they are predictable, businesses can easily adjust to inflation and encourage more employment and additional investment.
