Understanding Gerald Celente and His Method for Forecasting
In 1980, Gerald Celente founded The Trends Research Institute – a unique research group that focuses on future trends not only on economic standpoint but even on other facets of society. It’s a distinctive research group that made Gerald Celente a popular figure not only among economists and politicians but even on consumers. As a strategist of the same company, his standpoint is often considered and featured in various network shows. He is often invited to give out his opinion on certain government decision and its possible effects on the future on television.
To understand his methods on forecasting, it is important to consider his major concepts as this has shaped his opinions and his ability to forecast economic and political situations.
Gerald Celente often refers to himself as a political atheist. In gist, this is simply a standpoint where he doesn’t prefer any political or economic system. He believes that this allows him to be fully independent so that he can see the system to what it really is without any influence based on political views. By adopting the political atheist stand, he can make some predictions on what will happen on the future without adherence to any political ideals. This is perfectly embodied in his motto “think for yourself.”
But even though his standpoint is atheist or generally agnostic to various political ideals, this does resemble to the classic Austrian school of thought in economics. Instead of using a specific methodology to determine the economic trend, Celente uses the raw information as it is so that it could be interpreted against the current situation and even the human emotion. The only difference between Celente’s stand as a political atheist to the Austrian school of thought in economics is that the latter is only subscribed to economic facts. Celente is considering every facet of human society including political views that could easily change society.
Celente often provides a forecast of the future. One of the notable forecasts he made was for 2010. This was referred to as “neosurvivalism” which is an idea that adheres to survival as the basis for every decision. According to Celente, survival is no longer observed only in harshest conditions as it could go mainstream. This is brought by various factors among them is the rising unemployment. People will start to feel the system is no longer helping them so they have to look ways to survive outside of it. People will start to create plans where they can beat the system without being detected.
Globanomic – the Forecasting Method
With the belief that good forecasting can be easily obtained with the right timeframe and resources, Celente has pooled experts from various industries so that the can properly form a forecast. These experts provide a detailed trend in their industry and possibly provide the future outlook for a specific industry. Of course, this trend is then considered to other trends pushed by other experts. By pooling these resources, Celente could create a more educated forecast not only in economics but even in politics. In the past, Celente is known for his research based on what he sees in the news. By noting the news he reads and watches; he could have a decent conclusion on the upcoming trends. Of course, this practice was changed when he created the Globanomic methodology.
Revolution, Food Riot and Tax Rebellion
One of the most popular predictions of Gerald Celente is the 2012 prediction. According to Celente, 2012 will be a tumultuous year for USA because that would be the year where people would experience revolution, food riots and tax rebellion. This is directly related to his thoughts on mainstreaming survival in the society which tries to predict that people will eventually go underground just to survive.
The prediction made by Celente for 2012 has gained criticisms from various economists and politicians. The disagreement is based on two things:
The survivalist ideology is too far fetched as countries with bleaker economies tend to survive and still live in decent economic society. The US is still a major economy and a downgrade from their way of living will not mean the end of every social services and conveniences. In fact, a downgrade to their way of living could keep the society intact as the focus will no longer be based on spending.
There are individuals and groups who agree to the idea that the country is in a quick downturn. However, few believe that this even would actually happen so fast. If this would happen in the near future, not only will the economy crumble but the current political system and structure of each state and the federal government could be destroyed.
Other Criticisms for Celente
Because of his bold predictions, Celente always has critics that would contradict his claims. Generally, the criticism for Celente is usually based on his timing for the predictions. Although the latest prediction is considered too bleak or even far fetched, his predictions in the earlier decades are usually obvious. A good example is his prediction in 1998 where he made the prediction that more people will stay at home for business and personal reasons. The reason for this is that the population is growing old. As more people become retirees it is a natural trend that they would just stay at home because of their age. Instead of a prediction, this is basically an interpretation of events and stating its obvious implications.